If the housing market is crashing… then why do 80% of sellers still believe they can sell their home at or above asking price?

This week’s market update focuses on one of the biggest misunderstandings in today’s Arizona housing market: the belief that homes selling below asking price automatically means the market is collapsing.

But when we compare today’s market to historical data, the numbers actually show something very different. In many ways, today’s market looks much more like a normal pre-2020 housing market — especially here in the Phoenix Metro Area.

And locally, Chandler continues outperforming many surrounding cities.

Key Market Highlights

1. Seller Confidence Remains Surprisingly Strong

According to Realtor.com research, about 80% of sellers still believe they can sell their home at or above asking price. This suggests that despite negative headlines, most homeowners still feel confident about home values and overall housing demand.

2. Selling Below Asking Price Is Actually Normal

About 62% of homes in 2025 are selling below asking price. While many buyers assume this means the market is crashing, historical data shows that 2018 and 2019 had very similar numbers, making today’s market look much more historically normal than many people realize.

3. The Real Outlier Was 2021 and Early 2022

During the pandemic housing frenzy, only about 38% of homes sold below asking price due to historically low inventory and record-low mortgage rates. Today’s market is far more balanced and analytical compared to that once-in-a-generation environment.

4. Phoenix Is Returning to a More Balanced Market

Currently, about 15% of homes in Phoenix are selling above asking price. Historically, Phoenix spent many years within the 10%–20% range, meaning today’s market behavior is actually much closer to long-term historical averages.

5. Chandler Continues Outperforming the Broader Phoenix Market

While Phoenix overall sits around 15.4% of homes selling above asking price, Chandler is higher at approximately 17.9%. This indicates stronger pricing behavior and stronger buyer demand compared to many surrounding cities.

6. Local Market Differences Matter More Than National Headlines

Different cities across Maricopa County are behaving very differently. Cities with strong employment centers, good schools, and strong long-term demand — like Chandler — continue holding value better during shifting market conditions.

Buyer & Seller Insights

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, today’s market is much more balanced compared to the frenzy years of 2021 and early 2022.

Buyers now have more time to compare homes, negotiate carefully, and make more analytical decisions without the same emotional panic-buying environment seen during the pandemic market.

However, buyers should also understand that selling below asking price does not automatically mean sellers are losing money. Many homeowners still have significant appreciation compared to when they originally purchased their home.

And locally, cities like Chandler continue showing stronger pricing behavior and stronger demand than many nearby markets.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, confidence in the market remains relatively strong.

Many homeowners still believe their properties hold value, which influences pricing behavior, negotiation strength, and overall market momentum.

However, today’s market requires proper pricing strategy more than ever. Buyers are more careful, more payment-sensitive, and more selective compared to the peak frenzy years.

In strong local markets like Chandler, properly priced homes in desirable neighborhoods continue performing very well.