If you're waiting for mortgage rates to drop below 5% before buying your first home, you're not alone.

A recent survey found that 63% of home buyers believe a "good" mortgage rate needs to be under 5%, while 37% won't feel comfortable buying until rates return to around 3%. That's understandable—many buyers remember the historically low rates of 2020 and 2021 and hope they'll come back. The challenge is that today's forecasts don't point in that direction. Most major lenders and housing economists expect mortgage rates to remain in the 6% range well into 2027, meaning buyers who are waiting for dramatically lower rates could be sitting on the sidelines much longer than expected.

But here's the good news: mortgage rates aren't the only factor that determines whether now is a good time to buy. Across Arizona—and especially here in Chandler—builders are offering financing incentives, sellers are becoming more willing to negotiate, and more than half of recent transactions have included seller-paid concessions. For many buyers, those opportunities may have a bigger impact on affordability than waiting for the perfect interest rate. Let's break down this week's biggest market insights.

Key Market Highlights

1. Most Buyers Are Waiting for Mortgage Rates Below 5%

Nearly two-thirds of buyers believe mortgage rates need to fall below 5% before purchasing a home, while over one-third are waiting for rates to return to the 3% range. Expectations are largely shaped by the unusually low interest rates seen during the pandemic rather than long-term historical averages.

2. Current Forecasts Don't Expect Rates Below 5% Anytime Soon

Forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Wells Fargo all project mortgage rates remaining relatively stable through 2027, generally between 6.2% and 6.5%. While forecasts can change, today's outlook suggests buyers shouldn't build their entire home-buying strategy around the expectation of dramatically lower rates.

3. Builder Incentives and Seller Concessions Are Creating New Opportunities

Instead of focusing only on headline mortgage rates, buyers should also consider financing incentives. Many new-home builders are offering promotional interest rates, while seller concessions have reached their highest levels in years. These incentives can reduce upfront costs, lower monthly payments, or even help buy down mortgage rates depending on the transaction.

4. Chandler Buyers Currently Have More Negotiating Power Than Many Realize

According to local market data, 58% of Chandler home sales completed so far this August included seller-paid concessions. While well-priced homes can still receive multiple offers, many sellers are becoming increasingly flexible, giving buyers more opportunities to negotiate than national headlines might suggest.