If you've been waiting for home prices to fall before buying your first home, you need to pay attention to what the latest housing data is showing. Across the country, fewer housing markets are experiencing price declines. Greater Phoenix has recently returned to positive year-over-year home price growth.

But Chandler tells a different story. Its median sales price is still lower than it was one year ago. Does that mean Chandler's housing market is getting weaker? Should buyers continue waiting? Or could this actually be one of the best buying opportunities we've seen in years?

This week's market update breaks down the latest housing trends across the United States, Greater Phoenix, and Chandler to explain why real estate is truly local.

Key Market Highlights

1. National Home Price Growth May Have Reached Its Bottom

National home prices have cooled significantly over the past two years. During the middle of 2024, annual home price growth was close to 7%. By early 2026, that number had slowed into the low 2% range. That doesn't mean prices dropped by 5%. It simply means prices were still increasing—but much more slowly.

More importantly, the latest data shows that home price growth has begun moving upward again. Annual appreciation reached approximately 3% in June, marking three consecutive months of improvement. While three months isn't enough to confirm a long-term trend, it raises an important question:

What if the slowdown buyers have been waiting for has already reached its bottom?

2. Greater Phoenix Is Recovering—But Chandler Is Moving Differently

Greater Phoenix has recently returned to positive annual home price growth.

Earlier this year, annual median price growth had fallen to approximately -1.7%. By June, it had recovered to approximately +3.9%. That sounds encouraging. However, Chandler continues telling a different story.

For several consecutive months, Chandler's median sales price has remained below last year's level. The latest data shows Chandler sitting approximately 3.6% lower year over year. How can the national market improve, Phoenix move higher, yet Chandler remain negative?

Because real estate is local. Every city behaves differently. Even two neighborhoods within Chandler can experience different price trends depending on:

• Inventory levels

• Home condition

• Price range

• School districts

• Location

• Buyer demand

A declining median price also doesn't mean every Chandler homeowner lost value. Median price simply reflects the mix of homes that sold during that month. Still, the softer Chandler market may provide opportunities that buyers didn't have one year ago.

3. Fewer Housing Markets Are Seeing Price Declines

Another encouraging national trend is that fewer cities are experiencing falling home prices. At the beginning of 2025, only about 10% of the nation's 300 largest housing markets were declining. By June and July 2025, that number had climbed to approximately 36%. Since then, conditions have steadily improved.

The percentage of markets experiencing price declines has fallen:

• March 2026 — 30%

• April 2026 — 27%

• May 2026 — 26%

• June 2026 — 23%

That means roughly three out of every four major housing markets are no longer experiencing price declines. This doesn't mean home prices are about to surge again. Nor does it mean affordability has suddenly become easy. It simply means falling prices are becoming less widespread.

That's why buyers should avoid making decisions based solely on headlines predicting a nationwide housing crash. Your local market may tell a completely different story.

4. Chandler Is Softer—But Context Matters

The Greater Phoenix median home price currently sits around $457,000. After the rapid appreciation during the pandemic, prices corrected and have gradually stabilized within a more normal range.

That isn't a housing crash. It's normalization. Chandler's median sales price currently sits around $520,000. Last year, it was closer to $550,000, meaning today's median price is lower than one year ago.

Should buyers pay attention? Absolutely. Should one year of softer pricing automatically mean Chandler is crashing? No. Looking at the long-term chart, Chandler home prices remain dramatically higher than they were before the pandemic and continue to sit well above the Greater Phoenix median.

Context matters. One year of softer pricing doesn't erase years of long-term appreciation. It simply creates a different market environment than buyers experienced during 2021 and 2022.

What This Means for First-Time Buyers

Trying to perfectly time the housing market is one of the biggest mistakes first-time buyers make.

Instead of asking: "Is this the absolute lowest price?"

Ask a better question: "Is this the right home, at a payment my family can comfortably afford?"

Today's Chandler market may offer:

• More room for negotiation

• Less buyer competition

• Better contract terms

• More time to make decisions

At the same time, broader housing data suggests national price growth may already be stabilizing.

If buyer demand strengthens later this year, today's negotiating opportunities may not last forever.

Special Advice for Self-Employed Buyers

If you're self-employed, qualifying for a mortgage is only part of the equation.

A successful home purchase also requires:

• Stable monthly cash flow

• Proper financial documentation

• Emergency savings after closing

• A mortgage payment that comfortably fits your long-term family budget

Buying a home isn't about qualifying for the maximum loan amount.

It's about buying the right home without creating unnecessary financial stress.

What This Means for Sellers

Today's Chandler market is different from the pandemic years.

Homes can still sell successfully, but pricing strategy has become much more important.

Buyers now have more choices. Homes priced realistically continue attracting interest.

Homes priced too aggressively often sit on the market longer.

For sellers, success today depends on:

• Strategic pricing

• Professional marketing

• Proper home preparation

• Understanding neighborhood-specific demand