Phoenix AZ Market Update 2025: What the Shift Means for First-Time Home-Buyers
If you’re looking at buying a home in Phoenix, Arizona, right now is a moment to pay attention. The market is showing clear signs of cooling, and for buyers—especially first-timers—this shift offers an opportunity to dive in with more negotiating power than we’ve seen in recent years.
Recent data show that the median sale price in Phoenix in September 2025 was around $460,490, up about 2.3 % year-over-year. However, homes are also staying on the market longer—averaging around 64 days in September, up significantly from last year.
At the same time, broader state-level figures reveal that median home prices in Arizona are down about 1.3 % year-over-year, while inventory is up nearly 25 %.
What does this mean for you as a buyer?
More options, less pressure: With more homes available and longer days on market, you’re less likely to face frenzied bidding wars and can be more selective.
Better leverage on the deal: The slight moderation in growth means you may have more room to negotiate – whether that’s price, closing costs or timing.
Still a strong market: Despite the cooling, Phoenix is far from weak. Median prices remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels—and as a first-time buyer, choosing the right neighborhood and financing structure remains essential.
Budget isn’t just about price: With shifting market dynamics, your total monthly housing cost matters more than ever. Stay focused on what you can carry—not just what you can buy.
Want a breakdown of which Phoenix neighborhoods right now are offering the best value for first-time buyers, and what your dollars can realistically buy in today’s climate? Send me a message and I’ll pull together a curated list tailored to your budget and goals.
