Market Update - April 2025: Is the Luxury Market Losing Steam?

At the start of 2025, Arizona's luxury housing market (homes priced over $1 million) was booming. Contracts were up, demand was strong, and sellers had the upper hand. But as of mid-April — that trend has flipped.

📉 Luxury Home Contracts Are Falling

• Early 2025: Contracts on $1M+ homes were 15% higher than the same period in 2024.

• Now (mid-April): That trend has reversed — contracts are now 15% lower than 2024’s numbers. This signals a notable slowdown in high-end buyer activity.

🧠 What’s Causing the Shift?

To understand what’s happening, you have to look at wealth trends, not just housing data.

📊 Investment Losses Are Driving Hesitation:

• The stock market is down approximately 10% since February.

• Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies have dropped over 23% since January.

• Wealthy buyers often fund purchases with these assets — and when values drop, they tend to pull back or postpone deals.

Add in economic uncertainty and volatile financial markets, and you get fewer confident luxury buyers.

📉 What’s Next for the Luxury Market?

• Expect to see fewer closings in the $1M+ category in the coming months.

• The average price per square foot may start to decline.

• Unless the economy rebounds fast, sellers in this range may need to reprice or wait.

Even though inventory is still relatively low, luxury sellers should pay close attention to the financial markets, not just the housing charts.

🔍 Final Thought:

The luxury market is always the first to feel shifts in wealth. If you’re selling a high-end home, now’s the time to reassess your strategy and stay flexible. We’ll be watching this sector closely and updating weekly.