86 Days to Sell, Market Crash? - Arizona Housing Market Update 

For the last two months, sellers have been riding a good wave. But here's the thing—that wave is slowing down fast.

The Cromford® Market Index only rose 3.1% this week. That might sound okay, but it's way down from last week's 5.9%. Even more telling? 10 out of 17 major cities in Arizona just shifted back in favor of buyers.

So what's going on?

Simple: More homes are hitting the market, but buyers aren't showing up at the same pace. Supply is climbing faster than demand.

Here's how cities are breaking down:

Looking across the Valley, 13 cities are still better for sellers—Gilbert, Scottsdale, Peoria, Fountain Hills, Mesa, and Tempe are leading the pack. But 4 cities have swung toward buyers: Paradise Valley, Glendale, Cave Creek, and Maricopa.

Right now, we've got 7 seller's markets, 4 balanced markets, and 6 buyer's markets.

Before the Fed's recent rate cut, mortgage rates dropped to 6.11%. That was a 10-month low, and buyers were excited. Really excited. But then? They shot right back up to 6.39%.

That quick swing from "great rate!" to "wait, what happened?" has definitely cooled things off compared to earlier in September. People who were ready to jump in are now hitting pause again.

What's next?

Experts are projecting rates will hold somewhere near 6.4% for now. And when you combine that with listing prices flattening out and the slowest price growth we've seen in years? Today's market looks nothing like the wild boom days from a few years ago.

Here's the thing—what happens across the country affects us here in Arizona. And right now, there are three big things you need to know:

First: The job market is stalling, and the Fed is likely to step in.

Wall Street is putting a 91% chance on a rate cut coming in September. Why? Because the labor market is showing real signs of slowing down.

Second: Mortgage rates already came down after that weak jobs report.

This is actually good news. The average mortgage payment has dropped by about $250 since May. That's real money back in buyers' pockets every month.

Third: More help could be on the way.

According to Wall Street projections, we're looking at 2 Federal Funds rate cuts this year. That could mean even more stability and better affordability in the housing market.

The takeaway? A weaker job market is pushing the Fed to act. Rates have already dropped. And more relief might be coming soon.

Mortgage rates are playing a huge role in market dynamics. The rapid swing from a 10-month low of 6.11% back up to 6.39% after the Fed's rate cut has created uncertainty and dampened buyer enthusiasm.

If you're buying:

This is your moment. You've gained real negotiating power in 10 cities across Arizona. Rates are still bouncing around, sure, but they're lower than most of this past year.

Now might be your best chance to lock something in before supply builds even more and other buyers jump back in.

If you're selling:

Competition is heating up, and you need to be smart about it. Your pricing strategy matters. How your home looks matters. And patience? That matters too.

The good news: If you're in a hot spot like Gilbert or Scottsdale, you've still got leverage. The bad news: That leverage won't stick around if supply keeps climbing like this.