Phoenix Metro is currently a buyer’s market—but that does not mean every home in Chandler should be negotiated like one.

According to Cromford Associates data included in this week’s update, the Phoenix Metro Cromford Market Index was 79.4 on September 14, below the 90 level that generally indicates a buyer’s market. Chandler, however, had a CMI of 134.5 on September 13, above the 110 level that generally favors sellers.

How can buyers have the advantage across Phoenix Metro while sellers still have the advantage in Chandler? The answer comes down to supply and demand.

Across the Valley, inventory is increasing, months of supply are rising, and sales are slowing. Chandler is moving in the same direction, but its available supply remains limited enough that the overall market still favors sellers. That creates an important opportunity for first-time buyers: Chandler is not broadly a buyer’s market, but individual Chandler homes can still offer significant negotiating opportunities. The key is knowing which homes—and how to structure the negotiation.

Key Market Highlights

1. Phoenix Metro Is Currently a Buyer’s Market: The Phoenix Metro CMI stood at 79.4 on September 14, putting the overall Valley below the 90 threshold that generally indicates a buyer’s market. Active inventory increased from 26,565 to 27,609 in one month, while months of supply rose from 3.8 to 4.4.

2. Chandler Still Favors Sellers: Chandler’s CMI was 134.5 on September 13, which remains above the 110 level generally associated with a seller-favorable market. That means buyers shouldn’t automatically apply a Phoenix-wide buyer’s-market strategy to every Chandler property.

3. Chandler Inventory Is Moving in Buyers’ Favor: Active single-family detached listings in Chandler increased from 546 to 582, approximately 6.6% in one month. Months of supply also increased sharply from 2.1 to 2.9, while monthly sales fell from 219 to 170.

4. Negotiating Power Depends on the Individual Home: A new, properly priced Chandler listing can still attract strong buyer interest, while a home that has been sitting longer, reduced its price, returned to the market, or has a motivated seller may provide significantly more negotiating room. Buyers should evaluate the individual listing rather than assuming every Chandler seller has the same leverage.

5. A Recent Negotiation Shows Why Offer Structure Matters: A first-time buyer couple initially offered $1 million with a 3% seller concession on a home listed around $1.3 million, and the seller rejected the offer. After further analysis and negotiation, the buyers independently chose to offer $1.2 million with a lender-approved 3% concession, and the seller accepted; at that price, the approved concession could provide up to $36,000 toward allowable buyer costs, subject to final closing figures.

6. Mortgage Rates Reached 6.76%: Freddie Mac reported an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.76% on September 10, up 0.05 percentage points from the previous week and 0.41 points from a year earlier. Rather than relying on rates falling later, buyers should evaluate whether today’s monthly payment fits their budget.

Buyer Takeaways

If you're buying your first home in Chandler, this week's market provides three important steps to follow.

First, study the correct market. Look at the specific city, property type, neighborhood, and price range you're considering. Phoenix Metro averages alone can't tell you how competitive an individual Chandler listing will be.

Second, evaluate the individual property. Review days on market, price changes, previous contract history, comparable sales, condition, competing demand, and seller motivation.

Third, compare the financial impact of different negotiation strategies. A $10,000 price reduction, $10,000 closing-cost contribution, repair credit, and mortgage-rate buydown don't necessarily provide the same financial benefit.

The important takeaway is that Phoenix Metro currently favors buyers, while Chandler still favors sellers overall. At the same time, Chandler inventory is increasing, months of supply are rising, and sales activity is slowing. Those changes may create more opportunities for buyers—but those opportunities need to be identified one home at a time.

Seller Takeaways

For Chandler sellers, a CMI of 134.5 indicates the overall market still favors sellers, but the underlying numbers show that conditions are becoming less favorable than before.

Inventory is increasing. Months of supply have risen from 2.1 to 2.9, while monthly sales and pending listings have declined. That means sellers shouldn't assume that being in a seller-favorable market guarantees any asking price will work.

A well-priced home may still attract strong interest, while an overpriced property that sits on the market can create greater negotiating leverage for buyers. Pricing, property condition, competition, and seller motivation are becoming increasingly important.