It’s Finally Buyer Time in Arizona! - Arizona Housing Market Update

After nearly two months of gains for sellers, the Arizona real estate market has reversed course. This week, 15 out of 18 major cities now favor buyers—a significant shift from just last week. Only three cities (Tempe, Gilbert, and Mesa) are still improving for sellers.

The key driver? Supply is rising faster than expected this fall, while demand is improving slowly—still sitting about 20% below normal levels. This imbalance means buyers have regained leverage, especially in mid-range and starter homes where sellers are now competing on price and offering concessions.

Expect this pattern to continue through mid-November when supply typically peaks before the holiday slowdown. If you're a buyer, this is your window. If you're a seller, pricing strategy matters more than ever.

For the first time ever, Scottsdale has overtaken Phoenix in total home sale dollar volume—and it's not even close. With $6.32 billion in sales year-to-date, Scottsdale's market is now 8% larger than Phoenix, despite having half the number of transactions.

Paradise Valley is making waves too. The area has seen a stunning 30% growth in dollar volume this year, now ranking 5th overall in Arizona. Just 332 closed listings generated over $1.38 billion—more than much larger cities like Chandler or Peoria.

What's driving this? Out-of-state cash buyers are pouring money into high-end, hedge-style properties in these exclusive areas. Think of it like the stock market—a small group of "AI stocks" driving the overall gains. Arizona's luxury segment is doing the heavy lifting right now.

But remember: what goes up fast can cool just as quickly. Luxury markets that surge tend to correct, so enjoy the ride but stay aware.

Arizona's real estate market is far from gloomy. Total dollar volume is up 7.6% year-over-year, with more homes closing and average prices up 3.1%. That's solid, healthy growth—even in a cooling market.

But here's the catch: the gains aren't evenly distributed. Homes above $2 million are driving most of the growth, with dollar volume up 17.1%. Meanwhile, homes below $2 million are only up 6.1%.

Translation? Luxury is carrying the market, while affordable homes are becoming more... well, affordable. For most buyers, that's actually good news. The entry-level and mid-tier markets are softening, which means better deals and more negotiating power.

The bottom line: Arizona's market is solid overall, but if you're shopping below $2 million, you're in the best position in years.

Nationally, the housing market is showing a clear divide. About half of the top 50 metro areas are still seeing price increases, while the other half are experiencing slight declines. The markets with the strongest gains? Places where inventory is still tight. The declines? Mostly in areas that saw massive 60-70% price surges during the pandemic.

Overall, home prices are still growing nationwide—just at a slower, more sustainable pace.

On the economic front, inflation remains slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but is beginning to stabilize. Unemployment is holding steady—a bit higher than ideal, but consistent. These two factors continue to guide the Fed's decisions on interest rates and overall economic policy.

What does this mean for you? Price trends vary by region, inflation is elevated but stabilizing, and employment remains steady. As we move deeper into fall, expect continued regional differences—strong markets will stay strong, while overheated markets will continue cooling off.