Arizona Home Buyers Are Back In Control- Arizona Housing Market Update
After months of sellers calling the shots, the Arizona housing market is finally shifting back toward buyers. According to the Cromford Market Index, 11 out of 18 major cities have turned in favor of buyers over the past month. The CMI dropped -1.1% this month, reversing the previous gains.
Queen Creek has officially been split from San Tan Valley as a separate tracked city, bringing the total to 18 cities. This slowdown is expected to continue through mid-November as new listings surge and buyer activity softens during the holiday season.
The Arizona market currently shows:
7 seller's markets - including Tempe (+9%), Gilbert (+2%), Scottsdale (+6%), Chandler (+1%), and Fountain Hills (+4%)
4 balanced markets
7 buyer's markets - led by Cave Creek, Paradise Valley, and Avondale
Most homes still sell close to asking price with a 99.7% list-to-sale ratio, though this is down 3% from earlier in the year. The pattern is clear: buyers are slowly regaining leverage across much of the Valley.
Active listings are climbing fast, up 1.85% just this past week, putting Greater Phoenix on track to surpass 25,000 active listings soon.
Interest rates have remained stable, hovering between 6.25% and 6.7%, typically around 6.35%-6.38% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. This stability means buyers aren't rushing or panicking anymore.
The result? Plenty of homes to choose from and no more bidding wars.
The luxury sector continues to drive overall price strength. Recently, 6 homes sold for over $10 million, adding nearly $80 million in volume and lifting average prices by 2%.
Homes over $2 million: Up 7.2% per square foot year-over-year
Homes under $2 million: Down 0.6% per square foot
Without the luxury market propping up the numbers, overall appreciation would actually be negative. High-end demand is keeping Arizona's housing stats afloat.
At the entry level, supply far exceeds demand. Many first-time buyers remain cautious despite softer prices and stable rates.
However, buyers who take action now have strong negotiation power. There's no need to worry about bidding wars in today's market, and sellers are increasingly willing to negotiate on price and offer incentives.
Builders who were optimistic in late August are now scaling back production after seeing demand taper off.
Many are offering attractive incentives on quick move-in homes:
Interest rates as low as 3.99% for the first 3 years
No closing costs
Waived buyer's agent fees
Free appliances, washer, and dryer
These incentives are rare and show builders are willing to work with buyers to maintain consistent home values in their communities.
Nationally, the housing market shows three major trends:
More Inventory: Active listings have exceeded 1 million homes for 5 straight months since May — the highest level since 2019. Buyers have plenty of options compared to the difficult market of 2020-2021.
More Price Cuts: In Arizona, 26% of active listings have had price reductions as sellers become more realistic about market conditions.
Slower Price Growth: Home prices are still rising nationally, but at a much slower, more sustainable pace than the boom years.
The market is rebalancing toward more normal, healthy conditions where both buyers and sellers can negotiate fairly.
