AZ Market Change NO ONE Expected - Arizona Housing Market Update 

Arizona's housing market just shifted quietly but significantly. We're seeing surprising changes in investor profits, buyer-seller dynamics, and city-level momentum that could impact your next move.

Despite stable prices, flippers are crushing it. Homes resold within 180 days posted a $101,500 median profit—32% markup.

Traditional investors are dominating with 34% markups ($107,695 profit), while iBuyers like OfferPad (16%) and Opendoor (12%) lag far behind. Better buying decisions and lower overhead win every time.

Big story: the buyer advantage is slowing dramatically. Last week's CMI dropped -2.1%, this week only -0.6%. We're seeing a rare 9-9 split—nine cities moved toward buyers (Paradise Valley, Peoria), nine toward sellers (Phoenix, Gilbert, Queen Creek).

Phoenix jumped into seller-favorable territory. With demand growing and supply flattening, a market reversal toward sellers is likely within two weeks.

Rates dropped from 6.9% in January to 6.2% in October—a 0.7% decline and one of the longest consistent drops of 2025. This directly improves affordability and brings buyers back.

Monthly payments fell from $2,860 in May to $2,530 in October—a $330 monthly savings ($4,000 annually). For many families, that's the difference between qualifying and not qualifying. That's huge.

Private sector wages are trending upward, exceeding pre-pandemic levels and the long-term trend line. Higher wages + lower rates = significantly stronger buying power. This rare alignment makes homeownership more affordable from multiple angles.