While national headlines continue talking about affordability concerns and uncertainty, the local data across Maricopa County tells a very different story. Some cities are cooling, some are balancing out, and some — like Chandler — continue showing very strong seller-market conditions.

This week’s update breaks down:

• Why buyer activity is increasing again

• Why mortgage rates are behaving differently this year

• Why waiting for dramatically lower rates may not improve affordability

• And why there is no longer “one” Arizona housing market

Key Market Highlights

Mortgage Rates Are Still Lower Than the Last Two Spring Markets

Although mortgage rates have increased slightly since February due to inflation and economic concerns, today’s rates are still lower than they were during the last two spring homebuying seasons. Lower monthly payments compared to 2024 and 2025 are helping more buyers slowly return to the market.

Buyer Activity Is Slowly Increasing Again

As rates improved compared to last year, buyer activity began increasing across Arizona. More purchase applications and refinance applications suggest buyers are adjusting to current affordability levels, especially first-time buyers and self-employed buyers who were previously priced out.

Large Mortgage Rate Drops May Not Happen Soon

According to projections from Fannie Mae, MBA, and Wells Fargo, mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable through the rest of the year. The market is no longer projecting dramatic drops back into the 4% or 5% range anytime soon.

Waiting May Not Automatically Improve Affordability

If mortgage rates remain stable while more buyers re-enter the market, competition could increase again in stronger cities like Chandler. Buyers waiting for significantly lower rates may find themselves facing higher competition without meaningful payment improvements.

There Is No Single Arizona Housing Market

The latest Cromford Market Index data shows major differences between cities across Maricopa County. Some cities are moving toward buyers, others remain balanced, and several cities continue behaving like strong seller markets.

Chandler Remains One of Arizona’s Strongest Seller Markets

Chandler currently ranks as the second hottest housing market in Arizona with a Cromford Market Index of 154.5. While pricing strategy and property condition still matter greatly, Chandler continues showing significantly stronger demand than many surrounding cities.

Mortgage Rates and Buyer Activity

One of the biggest misconceptions in today’s market is that rates are still at the worst levels buyers have seen in recent years.

That’s simply not true.

Even after recent increases tied to inflation concerns, mortgage rates today remain lower than the last two spring homebuying seasons. That small difference matters more than many buyers realize because affordability is heavily tied to monthly payment.

For buyers shopping in Chandler’s common $500,000 to $800,000 price ranges, even small rate improvements can significantly impact:

• Monthly payment

• Loan qualification amount

• Overall affordability

As rates improved earlier this year, buyers immediately responded with increased purchase applications and refinance activity.

This is especially noticeable among:

• First-time homebuyers

• Self-employed buyers

• Families who previously paused their home search

The market is not suddenly “cheap,” but buyers today have more opportunity than they did during the previous two spring markets.

Buyers Waiting for Lower Rates May Need to Adjust Expectations

A large number of buyers are still waiting for mortgage rates to fall dramatically before restarting their home search.

However, current forecasts suggest that may not happen soon.

Major organizations including Fannie Mae, MBA, and Wells Fargo are all projecting relatively stable mortgage rates for the remainder of the year.

That means:

• Rates are not expected to crash lower

• Rates are not expected to spike dramatically higher

• The market may remain in this general affordability range for a while

This changes the conversation for many buyers.

Instead of asking:
“Should I wait for rates to drop?”

The more important question may now become:
“If rates stay relatively similar anyway, does waiting actually improve my position?”

Because if rates remain stable while more buyers re-enter the market, competition could increase again — particularly in stronger cities like Chandler.

Chandler vs. The Rest of Maricopa County

One of the most important insights in today’s market is understanding that Arizona is no longer behaving like one single housing market.

Different cities are moving in completely different directions.

According to the latest Cromford Market Index data:

• 9 cities remain seller markets

• 3 cities are balanced

• 6 cities are buyer markets

Overall, the detached single-family market moved only slightly in favor of buyers over the past month, but the changes remain modest.

This is not a market crash.

Instead, what we are seeing is hyper-local market behavior.

Some cities like:

• Queen Creek

• Paradise Valley

have shown stronger movements toward buyers.

Meanwhile:

• Surprise

• Maricopa

have actually strengthened toward sellers.

And Chandler continues standing out as one of the strongest markets in Arizona.

With a Cromford Market Index of 154.5, Chandler currently ranks as the second hottest housing market in the state.

That does not mean every home sells instantly.

Today’s market still depends heavily on:

• Pricing strategy

• Property condition

• Neighborhood

• Buyer expectations

• Price range

But compared to many surrounding cities, Chandler continues showing strong buyer demand.

Why Local Market Knowledge Matters More Than Ever

The strategy that works in Chandler may not work in Mesa.

The pricing strategy that works in Scottsdale may completely fail in Queen Creek.

And the negotiation strategies buyers need today are very different from what worked during the peak frenzy markets of 2021 and 2022.

Today’s market requires:

• Hyper-local market knowledge

• Strong negotiation strategy

• Understanding affordability and monthly payment impact

• Real city-by-city analysis

This is especially important for:

• First-time buyers

• Self-employed buyers

• Families balancing affordability with long-term financial stability

National headlines alone no longer tell the full story.