Inventory is continuing to rise, but buyers are still not rushing back into the market the way many people expected. That disconnect is one of the biggest stories in the current Chandler and Arizona housing market. Even with better mortgage rates and more choices, buyers are moving more carefully, taking more time, and negotiating harder.

That matters because when supply keeps climbing but demand does not accelerate at the same pace, seller momentum starts to weaken. Homes can take longer to sell, pricing power gets softer, and negotiation leverage begins to shift back toward buyers.

In this update, the deeper story is not just that inventory is up. It is that the market is improving in some ways, but still not strong enough to create urgency. That creates opportunities for buyers, but it also means sellers need to be much more strategic.

Key Market Highlights

• Inventory Is Still Rising, but Not as Fast as Last Year: Active listings are up about 5.5% compared to the same time last year. That means supply is still increasing, but the good news is that inventory growth is not as aggressive as it was in early 2025, when inventory growth was closer to 9%.

• Pending Sales Are Much Stronger Than Early 2025: Homes going under contract are up about 14.7% compared to the early part of 2025. This shows buyers are still active, but they are taking more time to choose the right home and moving with more caution.

• Closed Sales Are Still Lagging: Even though pending sales are stronger, closed sales are down about 24%, compared to a 15% drop in early 2025. That tells us the market started colder in 2026 and is only recently beginning to catch up.

• Mortgage Rates Improved Sharply, but Buyers Are Still Hesitating: Mortgage rates improved from roughly 7.0% last year to 6.1% today, which could mean about $300 to $400 per month in savings for some buyers. Even with that improvement, buyer urgency still has not returned the way many expected.

• Buyer Hesitation Is Coming From More Than Just Rates: Many buyers are still waiting for either lower prices, lower mortgage rates, or more confidence in the job market and overall economy. That means affordability is only one part of the decision-making process.

• Seller Momentum Is Starting to Weaken: The average Cromford Market Index change turned negative by about 1.3%, which is the first sign in several weeks that seller momentum is weakening. More cities are now moving in a direction favorable to buyers, and the market is getting much closer to a true shift in leverage.

• Inventory Is Higher Than Recent Years, but Still Below Pre-Pandemic Normal: National inventory has rebuilt steadily since the pandemic, but it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. That means this is not an oversupply market, and it does not currently support the idea of a broad market crash.

Buyer & Seller Insights

1. Inventory Is Up, but Demand Is Improving Too

The market is not frozen. More homes are available, but buyers are still making moves. The bigger issue is that they are moving more slowly and more carefully than many sellers expected.

For buyers, that means more choices and more negotiating room. For sellers, it means activity exists, but not enough to support careless pricing.

2. Lower Mortgage Rates Have Helped, But Not Enough

Rates improved significantly, but buyers are still not rushing in. That tells us the market is reacting to more than just affordability.

For buyers, this means waiting is a choice—but it is still a gamble. For sellers, it means lower rates alone are not enough to restore strong seller momentum.

3. Seller Momentum Is Starting to Fade

The Cromford Market Index is beginning to show the first real signs that leverage is shifting away from sellers.For buyers, this opens the door for stronger negotiation in more cities. For sellers, it is a warning that the advantage they had earlier is weakening quickly.

4. National Inventory Is Higher, but This Is Still Not an Oversupply Market

A lot of people see more listings and assume a crash is coming. The broader inventory chart tells a more balanced story.For buyers waiting for a crash, this is an important reality check. For sellers, it means the market is softer than before, but not structurally oversupplied.