If you are wondering whether home prices in 2026 are going up, down, or just staying stuck in the middle, this market update points to a quieter answer. The bigger story is not one dramatic prediction. It is the fact that most major housing forecasters are clustered very close together, which usually signals a market that is stabilizing rather than surging or crashing.

At the same time, what is driving the market right now is much more practical than emotional. Buyers are focused on mortgage rates, monthly payments, resale value, and how many homes are actually available, while sellers need to understand that appreciation alone is no longer enough to rescue an overpriced listing.

This update also shows an important split inside the market: resale homes are holding up better, new-home closings are struggling, luxury demand remains strong, and lower-priced segments are moving more slowly. That creates a very different strategy for buyers and sellers depending on what part of the market they are in.

Key Market Highlights

• Resale Homes Are Holding Up Better Than New Homes: January 2026 showed that resale is holding while new-home closings are struggling. New-home closings fell sharply, and only about 18% of homes sold in Maricopa County were new homes, the lowest share in nearly 10 years.

• Total Closings Were Flat, But January Had Fewer Working Days: Total closings were essentially flat year over year when comparing January 2025 to January 2026. However, January 2026 had fewer working days, so the flat number actually reflects slightly weaker overall closing activity than it first appears.

• Resale Homes Continue to Benefit From a Price Advantage: At the time of this update, resale homes were roughly $70,000 less expensive than new homes in the same area. That price gap is pushing many buyers to choose an older resale home over paying a premium for new construction, especially in cities like Chandler where even 1990s homes can still feel fresh when upgraded.

• The Median Sale Price Fell to About $470,000: The overall median sale price was around $470,000, the lowest level since 2024. Resale prices declined more than new-home prices, while builders kept headline prices more stable by leaning on incentives such as rate buydowns and closing-cost assistance.

• More Cities Are Shifting Toward Buyers: This update showed 13 cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers, compared with only 9 the prior week. The average Cromford Market Index dropped about 3.6% month over month, indicating broader softening in market direction even though several cities remain in seller-market territory.

• Luxury Demand Is Growing Faster Than Entry-Level Demand: Homes priced above $1 million now account for 39% of all dollar volume spent, up from 25% about three years ago, which is a 56% increase in market share. Meanwhile, homes under $500,000 lost 27% of their dollar share, showing that high-end demand is gaining ground while lower-priced segments remain more challenged.

• Most Experts Predict Only Modest Home Price Growth in 2026: Across 16 major financial and housing forecasters, most predictions fall into a very tight range, with many calling for roughly 1% to 4% price growth in 2026. That kind of clustering suggests a slow, steady, and more balanced market, not a boom and not a crash.

Buyer & Seller Insights

1. Resale Homes Are Winning More Buyers Than New Construction

One of the clearest themes in this update is the growing advantage of resale homes. Buyers are still active, but many are choosing resale over new construction because the price difference is large enough to matter.

For buyers, this means resale inventory may offer better value in the same location. For sellers, especially resale sellers, this creates opportunity if the home is priced properly against both nearby listings and builder competition.

2. The Price Gap Between New and Resale Homes Matters

The market is not just reacting to rates. It is reacting to the real monthly cost and the tradeoff between new construction and resale.

For buyers in places like Chandler, that difference can make an upgraded older home feel much more attractive. For builders, stable headline pricing may look strong on paper, but it does not fully reflect incentives like rate buydowns and closing-cost assistance.

3. Market Direction Is Shifting, Even If Some Cities Still Favor Sellers

A city can still be in a seller’s market while moving in a more buyer-friendly direction. That is what makes current market conditions more nuanced than a simple “seller’s market” headline.

For buyers, this means there may be more room to negotiate in some cities than people realize. For sellers, it means you cannot rely on old market momentum alone.

4. Luxury Demand Is Capturing More of the Market

The strongest spending growth is not happening in the entry-level market. It is happening at the high end.

For buyers, this means luxury competition may still be intense even when the broader market feels slower. For sellers, it highlights how uneven the market really is across price tiers.

5. Expert Forecasts Point to a Slow, Stable 2026

The strongest takeaway from the 2026 forecast data is not the exact number. It is how tightly grouped the predictions are. For buyers, that means less pressure to rush but also fewer reasons to wait for a big price drop. For sellers, it means pricing accurately is critical because modest appreciation will not rescue an overpriced listing.