If you are assuming Chandler is moving exactly like the rest of Arizona, this market update shows that it is not. Across the Valley, leverage is starting to shift toward buyers in many cities, but Chandler has not softened as quickly as many surrounding markets, which creates a very different pricing and negotiation environment.

That difference matters. Sellers who still price their home like the peak market of 2021 or 2022 risk sitting on the market too long, while buyers who assume every city is highly negotiable may miss the right home altogether. Chandler is not crashing, but it is not immune either.

In this update, the main story is about where leverage is shifting, how local market conditions differ across the Valley, and what that means for your pricing or offer strategy in 2026.

Key Market Highlights

• Most Valley Regions Are Flat or Down Since 2022, but the Northeast Valley Is Still Up: Over the past three to four years, most parts of the Valley have seen prices stay flat or decline. The major exception is the northeast Valley, which is up about 13% overall and around 18% for single-family homes, showing that higher-end areas have held up better than the rest of the market.

• West Phoenix and Pinal County Have Seen Some of the Biggest Softening: Some of the largest price declines have been in Pinal County and West Phoenix, where buyers have gained more negotiating power. In these areas, overpricing is especially risky because inventory levels and softer demand create more competition among sellers.

• Chandler Has Softened Some, but It Is Still Stronger Than Many Cities: Chandler posted about a 4% drop in Cromford Market Index momentum, but that comes after many months of strength. Even with that shift, Chandler is still one of nine cities currently in a seller’s market, which means buyers cannot assume Chandler will behave like softer markets such as Buckeye or Maricopa.

• The Market Direction Is Shifting Toward Buyers: In this update, 16 cities moved in a direction more favorable to buyers, compared with 13 the previous week. On average, the market index dropped about 6%, versus 3.6% the week before, suggesting broader buyer leverage is increasing across the Valley.

• Inventory Is Not Tightening the Way It Normally Does After the Super Bowl: Historically, by mid-February, demand is usually strong enough to slow or reverse inventory growth heading into spring. That is not happening right now, and because 2025 inventory did not peak until late April, 2026 may follow a similar pattern with weaker-than-normal early spring demand.

• Lower Mortgage Rates Alone Are Not Enough to Lift Demand: Even though mortgage rates have dropped compared with 2025, demand has not increased enough to absorb current listings. Buyers are also watching the economy, jobs, politics, and the possibility of future price or rate declines, which is keeping many of them on the sidelines.

• Affordability Improved in the Second Half of 2025: The national affordability index fell below 100 in mid-2025, reaching about 95.5 in June, meaning the typical family no longer had enough income to comfortably qualify for a median-priced home. Affordability improved later in the year as mortgage rates eased and home prices remained stable, which helped more buyers qualify.

Buyer & Seller Insights

1. Price Performance Is Not Equal Across the Valley

The biggest mistake buyers and sellers can make right now is assuming every city in Arizona is moving the same way. The data shows a clear split between stronger markets and softer ones.

For buyers, this means opportunity depends heavily on where you are searching. For sellers, it means pricing strategy must reflect your specific local market, not the headline you heard about Arizona overall.

2. Buyer Leverage Is Expanding Across More Cities

The Cromford Market Index is showing that more cities are shifting toward buyers, even if some of them are still technically seller’s markets.

For buyers, this creates more room to negotiate in softer areas. For sellers, it is a warning that even if your city is still technically strong, the trend may be moving against aggressive pricing.

3. Inventory Is Not Following a Normal Spring Pattern

One of the more important signals in this update is that inventory is not tightening the way it usually does after the Super Bowl.

This matters because lower rates alone are not driving enough urgency. Buyers are still weighing affordability, the economy, job concerns, politics, and the possibility that prices or rates may improve later.

4. Affordability Improved Later in 2025

Affordability became more favorable in the second half of 2025, which helps explain why activity improved later in the year.

For buyers, this helps explain why the second half of 2025 offered better qualification power than spring. For sellers, it explains why activity may have improved later in the year even after a weaker start.