For the past two years, many home buyers have been waiting for two things to happen: lower mortgage rates and lower home prices.

But what if only one of those actually happens?

The latest housing data suggests the second half of 2026 could look very different from the first. Mortgage rates may finally have room to improve, experts still expect home prices to rise modestly, and more buyers could return to the market. Here in Chandler, we're already seeing early signs of that shift.

Whether you're buying or selling in Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, or anywhere in Maricopa County, here's what this week's market update means for you.

Key Market Highlights

Mortgage Rates May Finally Have Room to Improve

One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates have remained elevated this year has been persistent inflation, and energy prices have been one contributor. Recently, oil prices have been trending downward, which historically has helped create conditions for mortgage rates to gradually improve over time.

While no one can predict exactly when rates will move or by how much, this is one of the most encouraging economic signals buyers have seen in months.

Experts Still Expect Home Prices to Rise in 2026

Five major housing organizations recently released their 2026 forecasts, and every one of them expects home prices to finish the year higher than where they started.

The average forecast calls for approximately 2.3% national appreciation. Home prices are already up around 1.7% year over year, meaning only modest appreciation is needed during the second half of the year to reach those projections.

More Buyers Could Return During the Second Half of 2026

Home sales during the first half of the year have been slower than expected, but many experts believe that's because buyers have been waiting—not because demand disappeared.

If affordability improves even slightly through lower mortgage rates or increased confidence, many families who delayed their purchase could re-enter the market later this year.

Chandler Is Already Showing Stronger Buyer Activity

Unlike many national headlines suggest, Chandler is already showing positive momentum.

More homes have sold so far this year than during the same period last year, indicating improving buyer confidence in the local market.

While that doesn't guarantee rapid price growth, it suggests Chandler is participating in the broader market recovery economists are forecasting.

What This Means for Buyers

If you're planning to buy a home this year, waiting for both lower rates and lower prices may not be the best strategy.

If mortgage rates ease while buyer demand increases, competition could return before prices fall significantly.

Today's market still offers:

• More inventory than the pandemic years

• Better negotiation opportunities

• More seller concessions

• Less competition than a few years ago

For buyers planning to stay in their home for five years or longer, purchasing the right home at the right monthly payment may be more important than perfectly timing the market.

What This Means for Sellers

The market remains healthy, but buyers have become much more selective.

Homes that are priced correctly, marketed professionally, and presented well continue to attract serious buyers.

If mortgage rates improve during the second half of the year, buyer activity could strengthen, creating additional opportunities for well-prepared sellers.