Is the Housing Market Crashing? Chandler AZ Market Update – June 2026

Introduction

One of the most common questions I hear right now is:

"Is the housing market crashing?"

If you're only watching national headlines, you might think the answer is yes.

This week, we're looking at four different data sets to answer that question:

• National housing market forecasts

• Arizona home sales

• Chandler home sales

• Long-term Phoenix market trends

The surprising part? While national forecasts have become more cautious, actual home sales in Arizona and Chandler are higher than last year. Let's break down what the data is really telling us.

Key Market Highlights:

1. National Home Sales Forecasts Have Been Revised Lower: Major housing organizations including Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR have lowered their 2026 home sales forecast from approximately 5.2 million homes to 4.9 million homes. That's a reduction of roughly 300,000 expected sales, showing that experts believe affordability challenges and higher mortgage rates will continue slowing buyer activity.

   

2. Arizona Home Sales Are Running About 5% Higher Than Last Year: Despite higher mortgage rates, buyers are still actively purchasing homes throughout Arizona. Sales volume across Maricopa County has consistently outperformed 2025 levels, suggesting demand remains stronger than many people expected.

   

3. Chandler Is Outperforming the Arizona Market: While Arizona home sales are up approximately 5%, Chandler home sales are up roughly 10% to 15% compared to last year. This indicates that demand in Chandler remains particularly strong and desirable homes continue attracting buyer attention.

   

4. Real Estate Is Local: National headlines often paint a different picture than what buyers and sellers experience locally. Although national forecasts have weakened, both Arizona and Chandler are seeing higher sales activity than they did one year ago.

5. Phoenix Does Not Look Like a Crash Market: Annual sales activity across Greater Phoenix has been gradually improving since reaching its low point in late 2024. Current annual sales are running around 70,000 transactions, significantly above the levels experienced during the 2008 housing crash.

   

6. Higher Rates Are Slowing Activity, Not Stopping It: Mortgage rates near 6.8% continue to impact affordability and decision-making. However, buyers who are comfortable with today's monthly payments are still moving forward with purchases rather than waiting indefinitely for lower rates.

What This Means for Buyers:

• Opportunity Still Exists: Many buyers are waiting for a market crash that the data simply isn't showing. Demand remains active throughout Arizona and especially in Chandler.

• Focus on Monthly Payment: Rather than trying to perfectly time the market, buyers should focus on whether today's payment fits comfortably within their budget.

• Be Ready to Act: In Chandler, desirable homes that are priced correctly continue attracting strong interest. When the right property becomes available, hesitation can be costly.

What This Means for Sellers:

• Buyers Are Still Shopping: Despite higher interest rates, buyers have not disappeared. Arizona and Chandler sales data both show stronger activity than last year.

• Pricing Still Matters: This is not the type of market where sellers can choose any price and expect success. Proper pricing and property presentation remain critical.

• Chandler Remains Strong: Local demand continues outperforming many expectations, giving Chandler sellers a significant advantage compared to many other markets across the country.