Is the Chandler housing market better, worse, or basically the same compared to last year? That is one of the biggest questions buyers and sellers are asking right now, and the answer is a little more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

At first glance, 2026 looks very similar to 2025. Prices have not moved dramatically, and the overall market does not look wildly different on the surface. But underneath that, leverage has shifted. Some areas are becoming more buyer-friendly, while other pockets are still holding stronger for sellers.

What makes this market especially interesting is that mortgage rates are lower than last year, yet buyer behavior has not responded as strongly as many expected. That gap between lower rates and only modest demand growth is shaping today’s opportunity—and risk—for both buyers and sellers in Chandler.

Key Market Highlights

• Inventory Is Up Nearly 10%, Giving Buyers More Options: Compared with 2025, active listings in the Phoenix–Chandler area are up about 9.7%. That means buyers have more homes to choose from, which gives them more leverage—especially when a property is not priced sharply against competing listings.

• Sellers Are Still Pricing Optimistically: Even with higher supply, the average list price is still up about 2% versus last year. That suggests many sellers are still betting on the market and listing at optimistic prices, even though the market is now more sensitive to overpricing.

• Demand Has Not Disappeared: Buyer activity is still there. Pending sales are up 3%, homes under contract are up about 9.4%, and closed sales are up about 4.9% versus last year, which shows buyers are still active even in a slower market.

• Buyers Are Paying Less Per Square Foot: While transaction activity is holding up, buyers are paying about 3% less per square foot on homes that go under contract compared to last year. That means the demand is real, but buyers have gained more price leverage in 2026.

• Median Sale Price Is Slightly Down, Not Crashing: The average closed price per square foot is up 1%, while the median sale price is down 1.4% from January 2025. That mixed pricing picture points to a market where accurate pricing matters more than momentum, not a price crash.

• Homes Take Longer to Sell Than Last Year: Days of inventory rose from 126 days in 2025 to 134 days in 2026. That means it is taking longer to absorb the available inventory, which increases the risk for sellers who come to market overpriced.

• Lower Rates Alone Have Not Changed Buyer Behavior Enough: Mortgage rates fell from about 7.06% in January 2025 to 6.19% in January 2026, yet buyer behavior has not surged the way many expected. That suggests rates are only one piece of the puzzle, alongside affordability, job stability, consumer confidence, and price expectations.

Buyer & Seller Insights

1. Buyers Have More Choice Than Last Year

One of the clearest differences between 2025 and 2026 is supply. Buyers are not dealing with the same level of scarcity they faced in earlier years.

For buyers, this means you can be more selective than last year. For sellers, it means you cannot rely on a lack of inventory to cover for weak pricing.

2. Demand Is Still Active, But Buyers Have Better Negotiating Power

The market is slower, but demand is not gone. The bigger change is that buyers are still transacting while pushing harder on price.

For buyers, this is a healthier environment than last year because activity is still there without the same level of pricing pressure. For sellers, it means a well-positioned home can still move, but overpricing is much more dangerous.

3. Pricing Signals Show a Stable but Softer Market

The pricing data is mixed, but not in a way that suggests a crash. It suggests a market where individual strategy matters much more than broad momentum.

For sellers, median sale price is the more practical number to watch because averages can be distorted by outlier sales. For buyers, the softer median price supports the idea that negotiation opportunities have improved.

4. Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell, Even With Lower Rates

Lower mortgage rates usually help demand, but they have not changed the market enough to fully offset higher supply and buyer caution. That matters because rates are only one market driver. Buyers are also watching affordability, job stability, consumer confidence, expectations around future prices, and overall supply.

5. Mortgage Predictions for 2026 Are Helpful, But Not Certain

The forecast range for mortgage rates shows some possible improvement, but no one knows for sure where rates will end the year.

For both buyers and sellers, the bigger lesson is not to make life decisions based entirely on predictions. The smarter approach is to evaluate the current numbers, current affordability, and current market position instead of reacting to headlines alone.